Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Demand for Solar films used in panels surpases analysts' expectation

3M Boosts Forecast as Renewable Energy Helps Top Earnings Estimates


3M Boosts Forecast as Renewable Energy Helps Top Estimates
3M Co. boosted its full-year earnings forecast after first-quarter profit rose 16 percent. Photographer: Andrew Burton/Bloomberg 

3M Co. (MMM) boosted its full-year earnings forecast after first-quarter profit surpassed analysts’ estimates, fueled by demand for films used in solar panels and tablet computers.
Profit this year will be $6.27 to $6.47, excluding pension- related expenses, compared with a February forecast of $6.17 to $6.42 a share, the St. Paul, Minnesota-based maker of Scotch tape said today in a statement.
Sales increased about 20 percent at the industrial and transportation division, whose products include films for solar panels and windows, and at the electronics and communications unit, which makes films for smartphones. 3M said the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will curb 2011 profit by 10 cents to 13 cents a share, and favorable currency translation will help offset that.
“The year has started off better than we would have expected,” Stephen Tusa, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst in New York, wrote today in a note. Tusa has a “neutral” rating on the shares.
3M climbed $1.65, or 1.8 percent, to $95.77 at 9:50 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest intraday price since October 2007. The shares gained 9 percent this year before today.
First-quarter net income rose to $1.08 billion, or $1.49 a share, from $930 million, or $1.29, a year earlier. Analysts projected profit of $1.44, excluding some items, the average estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Economic Bellwether

Revenue climbed 15 percent to $7.31 billion, compared with an average estimate of $6.95 billion, with sales gains at all six divisions. 3M is an economic bellwether because of its product range which spans health-care, consumer, automotive and energy markets.
3M’s full-year forecast tops analysts’ average estimate of $6.22 a share and last year’s adjusted profit of $5.75 a share.
3M has five manufacturing sites and about 2,700 workers in Japan, where its largest businesses are industrial and consumer-related.
3M today said favorable currency translation will increase sales this year by 2 percent to 3 percent, up from a previous forecast of 1 percent to 2 percent.

Monday, April 18, 2011

North America Solar to Exceed Germany in 2012: Chart of the Day

North America is set to overtake Germany for the first time in 13 years to become the biggest market for new photovoltaic installations, Barclays Capital estimates.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows 4,455 megawatts of solar panels will be hooked up on roofs and fields in the U.S. and Canada in 2012 and 3,500 megawatts in Germany, according to projections by the unit of Barclays Plc. North America last topped Germany in 1999, when the three nations together fitted less than 40 megawatts, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Germany, which led the world last year by adding 7,450 megawatts, will trim subsidies in July. Annual installations “have probably peaked because they have so much penetration already,” said Martin Simonek, a New Energy Finance analyst in London. In Canada, Ontario province improved subsidies in 2009 and is attracting developers from around the world.
“The growth in North America is sustainable,” Simonek said. “In the U.S., the mandated amounts of procured renewable energy are growing every year, meaning utilities have to source more electricity from renewable sources.”
Growth in the U.S., where there are more commercial solar farms, may benefit Chinese companies, while more expensive European panels do better in rooftop markets like Germany, said Simonek, whose research group forecasts the North American market to overtake Germany a year later than Barclays Capital.
Germany, with the biggest growth in photovoltaic capacity for six of the past seven years, also leads the world in total capacity, with 17,000 megawatts fitted by the end of 2010. The U.S. had 2,500 megawatts.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net

Thursday, April 7, 2011

GE ups the ante in solar

GE antes up in solar power race with nation's largest panel manufacturing facility

By Associated Press
Thursday, Apr 7, 2011
NEW YORK — GE is taking aim at the world’s biggest solar company in a bid to expand into a fast-growing renewable energy market.

General Electric Co. announced Thursday that it would spend $600 million to build the nation’s biggest solar panel factory. It would build the same type of so-called thin film solar panels manufactured by First Solar Inc., the biggest producer of solar panels in the world.

GE also announced Thursday that testing by a government laboratory showed that its panels set an efficiency record for this type of thin film panel, made from the elements cadmium and tellurium.

“It’s demonstrated to be the cost leader in the marketplace and we think we can push costs lower, and faster,” said Vic Abate, vice president for GE’s renewable energy business.

The company did not say where the factory would be built. Abate said it would eventually employ 400 people and be producing panels by 2013. The plant would have the capacity to build 400 megawatts worth of panels per year, enough to power about 80,000 homes.

By comparison, First Solar will have 2,300 MW of capacity by the end of this year.

Still, analysts say GE’s size, manufacturing experience, and ability to invest heavily in technology and to finance projects is sure to eventually pressure First Solar and other solar makers.

“There’s no way to not look at this as a severe competitive threat,” said Aaron Chew, an analyst at Hapoalim Securities in New York.

Several large Korean companies — Samsung, Hyundai Heavy Industries, LG Display, and LG Electronics — have also indicated they plan to invest in solar.

“The big boys are entering the space and it doesn’t bode well for the smaller players,” Chew said.

First Solar shares dropped $2.94, or 2 percent, to $147.66 in midday trading. GE shares slipped 24 cents to $20.32.

GE, based in Fairfield, is the biggest maker of wind turbines in the U.S. and among the biggest in the world, but it has been slow to venture into solar. It first bought a minority stake in PrimeStar Solar, which developed the technology GE now plans to manufacture, in 2007. It recently acquired all of PrimeStar, which is based in Colorado.

Solar power is far more expensive than wind power, and contributes far less power to the nation’s grid.

But the growth in wind power was cut in half in 2010. Low electricity prices make wind look comparably more expensive. There’s a lack of transmission lines from remote, windy locations. And state and federal policymakers are reluctant to impose or increase renewable energy mandates.

Solar continues to grow quickly, a result of rapidly falling panel prices and state incentives. Also, solar panels produce power during the heat of the day, when power prices are high. Wind typically blows strongest at night, and has to compete with lower wholesale power rates.

Over the next five years, Abate estimates, the world will spend $20 billion to install 75,000 megawatts of solar panels.

Abate, who also runs GE’s wind business, expects wind to continue to provide the bulk of the world’s renewable power. He said GE had been studying solar, and waiting for the best technology to emerge.

GE has now made its choice: so-called cad-tel thin film panels.

Most solar panels are made from crystalline silicon, similar to the material that is used to make the brains of computers and electronics. These cells are more efficient at turning the sun’s rays into electricity, but they are more expensive to manufacture.

The promise of thin film cells is that they can be manufactured so cheaply that even if the cell itself is less efficient than a crystalline silicon cell, a solar power system based on thin films would produce cheaper solar power.

Only First Solar, though, has learned to make thin films efficient enough and cheap enough to win a big segment of the solar market. It is the only top solar panel maker that uses thin film.

GE now buys and re-sells another type of thin film panel, based on different chemistry, from Solar Frontier, a subsidiary of the Japanese energy giant and Royal Dutch Shell affiliate Showa Shell Sekiyu.

Abate said the cells from the new cad-tel plant will produce among the world’s cheapest solar power.

“For solar to have a big breakthrough, there has to be a breakthrough in cost and affordability,” Abate said. “That’s a technical problem and it’s something we are excited about.”

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Solar gaining more ground

Solar Power May Already Rival Coal, Prompting Installation Surge

California Solar Farm
Mountains stand beyond solar modules at the Southern California Edison (SCE) solar array in Porterville, California. Photographer: Ken James/Bloomberg
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Katrina Landis, chief executive officer of BP Plc's alternative-energy unit, discusses the outlook for the London-based company's investments in clean energy. Landis spoke yesterday with Erik Schatzker at the 2011 Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit. (Source: Bloomberg)
Solar panel installations may surge in the next two years as the cost of generating electricity from the sun rivals coal-fueled plants, industry executives and analysts said.
Large photovoltaic projects will cost $1.45 a watt to build by 2020, half the current price, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimated today. The London-based research company says solar is viable against fossil fuels on the electric grid in the most sunny regions such as the Middle East.
“We are already in this phase change and are very close to grid parity,” Shawn Qu, chief executive officer of Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ), said in an interview. “In many markets, solar is already competitive with peak electricity prices, such as in California and Japan.”
Chinese companies such as JA Solar Holdings Ltd., Canadian Solar and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. are making panels cheaper, fueled by better cell technology and more streamlined manufacturing processes. That’s making solar economical in more places and will put it in competition with coal, without subsidies, in the coming years, New Energy Finance said.
“The most powerful driver in our industry is the relentless reduction of cost,” Michael Liebreich, chief executive officer of New Energy Finance, said at the company’s annual conference in New York yesterday. “In a decade the cost of solar projects is going to halve again.”

Installation Boom

Installation of solar PV systems will almost double to 32.6 gigawatts by 2013 from 18.6 gigawatts last year, New Energy Finance estimates. Manufacturing capacity worldwide has almost quadrupled since 2008 to 27.5 gigawatts, and 12 gigawatts of production will be added this year. Canadian Solar has about 1.3 gigawatts of capacity and expects to reach 2 gigawatts next year, Qu said.
“You have to get better at it as well,” said Bill Gallo, CEO of Areva SA (CEI)’s solar unit. The French company could shave another 20 percent from the cost of making its concentrating solar thermal technology, and the same proportion from building and deploying plants, he said.
Electricity from coal costs about 7 cents a kilowatt hour compared with 6 cents for natural gas and 22.3 cents for solar photovoltaic energy in the final quarter of last year, according to New Energy Finance estimates.
Comparisons often overstate the costs of solar because they may take into account the prices paid by consumers and small businesses who install roof-top power systems, instead of the rates utilities charge each other, said Qu of Canadian Solar.
“Solar isn’t expensive,” he said “In many areas of the solar industry you’re competing with retail power, not wholesale power.”
Rooftop solar installations also will become cheaper, the executives said.
“System costs have declined 5 percent to 8 percent (a year), and we will continue to see that,” SolarCity Inc. CEO Lyndon Rive said in an interview. The Foster City, California- based company is a closely held installer and owner of rooftop power systems.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ehren Goossens at the BNEF Summit in New York at egoossens1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net